So to clarify I’m not saying that this is a future I would choose I’m saying it is the future I envisage. If you have no wish to own stuff then Spotify is perfect and there is no loss of sales to shops. If artists, labels and record companies sell directly then at the moment their models are flawed.
For “big” artists with a hardcore fan base and a lot of more casual fans then there is no problem. They can “engage” with their keen fans selling them any amount of bundles and then sell to the casual fan via HMV and Amazon. On the other hand though if an artist produces a great album but only has a solid fan base then it will be lost in no time at all as there is simply nobody left out there to buy it.
If you are an established band happy just selling to your fans then a slow decline awaits. If you are an up and coming band happy to just stick with what you’ve managed to achieve with probably a lot of hard work then the “big break” is unlikely. Things don’t have to be like this with even just a level playing field but if if labels and bands always want the jump on shops for sales then they can’t be surprised at what happens. Having said that for some shops there are enough crumbs and they are big enough that they will continue living off scraps pleased they “finally” have a release especially if they have other income streams.
I reckon good shops are so much better at selling directly to artists’ fan bases (and don’t forget shops have their own contacts and mailing lists too) that maybe bands should ask their favourite local shop to do it for them while still embracing the crowd funding / direct-to-fan model. Watch this space !